Mandryk: Why Saskatchewan now votes Conservative over and over again

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In six of the last eight federal elections in this new millennium, New Democrats have been shut out in this province.

Yes, this is today’s Saskatchewan — the birthplace of former Co-operative Commonwealth Federation leader Tommy Douglas’s social democratic movement that brought this country medicare.

Federal Liberals? They haven’t fared much better.

Except for now-High Commissioner to the United Kingdom Ralph Goodale, who won eight consecutive elections in Regina Wascana from 1993 to 2019, only two other Liberal candidates have won seats in Saskatchewan in the last 28 years.

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But the Conservatives? Well, since the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) first ran in 2004, their federal candidates in this province have won 90 per cent of the time, sweeping the province the last two federal elections.

The intriguing question is: Why? Why is Saskatchewan now so staunchly Conservative?

“I think the province has changed. The politics (and) economy have changed,” said Tom McIntosh, associate dean of the University of Regina’s Faculty of Arts. Saskatchewan has embraced its oil, natural gas and potash wealth, he added.

“We are now the most conservative province,” added Jim Farney, director and professor at the U of R’s Johnson Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy.

Perhaps less apparent to those outside the province’s rectangular borders, Saskatchewan’s political landscape is now dominated by that resource wealth, increased rural conservatism from bigger farms, a high percentage of free-enterprise small businesses and even religious influences, Farney said.

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And notwithstanding national opinion polls suggesting Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals could actually add 40 seats after sinking to the depths of near oblivion, the poli sci profs again expect something close to a near Saskatchewan Conservative sweep in the April 28 federal vote.

This just isn’t the Tommy Douglas-Allan Blakeney-Roy Romanow Saskatchewan any more. Even the little pieces of Liberalism carved out by Goodale are gone. Saskatchewan is now staunchly Conservative, less likely to embrace any Trump tariff-inspired nationalism trends.

“You have lost that more ‘co-operative’ kind of element, which isn’t necessarily a left-wing thing,” McIntosh said.

You get more devoted Conservative voters when you couple this with what McIntosh describes as a rural “visceral reaction” to former Liberal prime minister Justin Trudeau and his carbon tax.

Trudeau’s father, Pierre Trudeau, incited the same reaction 50 years ago with his National Energy Program.

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“It’s become political lore (in rural Saskatchewan),” the U or R associate dean said of the NEP.

But Saskatchewan’s political conversion is as much about how the other parties have neither adapted nor are in tune with a changing Saskatchewan, McIntosh said. “As much as this is the success of the Conservatives, it’s also the failure of the left. They stopped casting the net very wide.”

Past federal NDP success partly driven by a populist provincial NDP government has largely dissipated — notwithstanding an NDP urban resurgence in the October provincial election, McIntosh said.

“I think the working-class piece is important,” added Farney, noting Conservatives have established footholds even in traditional NDP areas like urban north Regina where unionized steel and oil refinery workers with trucks, boats or RVs in their driveways have also been voting Conservative.

Similarly, the growing numbers of socially conservative new Canadians — those who might have voted Liberal in the past — are also attracted to the Conservative message, the political scientists said.

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It’s also a bit of a snowball rolling downhill, Farney said, explaining the Conservative’s political success of the recent past attracts more voters and more electable candidates.

Conversely, the reverse is also true, as the NDP and Liberals have struggled to find candidates and experienced campaigners — even in federal seats they once held.

Liberals have a shot in Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, where former NDP provincial cabinet minister Buckley Belanger is attempting a political comeback, the academics say. But he may be in for a fight against former Saskatchewan Party MLA Jim Lemaigre.

Even Goodale’s one-time stronghold of Regina Wascana is now viewed as a solid Conservative seat, McIntosh said. “I think (Conservative candidate Michael) Kram will win quite handily.”

In today’s Saskatchewan, Conservatives winning quite handily seems everyone’s safe bet.

Mandryk is the political columnist for the Regina Leader-Post and the Saskatoon StarPhoenix.

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